It was two months in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.
Per the data, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
