Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
